This paper applies a dynamic panel data approach to examine the main factors affecting non-performing loans (NPL) of commercial banks in Uzbekistan. The paper utilizes both bank-specific factors such as loan-to-deposit ratio, size, leverage, and type of ownership as well as macroeconomic factors, such as GDP growth rate and exchange rate to determine their significance in credit risk of commercial banks. The results indicate that current loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) and leverage have positive impact on NPL ratio while higher GDP growth rate is associated with lower rate of NPL. However, lagged LDR and leverage ratios have shown negative relationship with NPL. Size, bank ownership type and exchange rate have not exhibited any significant impact on NPL.
We study the relationship between fiscal councils and creative accounting in 27 European Union (EU) countries. We use stock-flow adjustments to indicate creative accounting and relate them to our fiscal council indicator in a panel framework. Regarding the fiscal rules that trigger creative accounting, we distinguish between external (resulting from European Monetary Union membership) and internal fiscal rules. While fiscal councils are not significant when used as stand-alone variable their interaction with fiscal rules is significant. Our findings indicate that fiscal councils reduce creative accounting triggered by fiscal rules and thus help to enforce fiscal rules and sound fiscal policies.
This study aims to determine the impact of healthcare spending on infant mortality rates in 45 sub-Saharan African nations from 2000 to 2020. Utilizing threshold regression, it reveals that lower regime dependents exhibit a decrease in public health spending below a certain threshold, leading to a positive correlation between total public health expenditure and infant mortality rates. Conversely, external medical funding significantly reduces infant mortality in higher threshold regimes but not in lower threshold regimes.
Private health expenditure negatively and significantly impacts both lower and higher income groups, placing undue pressure on residents. However, the study does not fully account for sociocultural factors influencing infant mortality in the region. The research highlights that direct healthcare costs in the region meet the minimum threshold for health expenditure and are inversely related to infant mortality rates.
This study investigates interaction between inflation and economic growth in South Africa during 1970-2021 periods. Utilizing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, it finds that inflation, long-term interest rate and money supply have negatively impact on South African economic growth.
Furthermore, the study conducts causality tests which reveal a bidirectional relationship between money supply and South African economic growth. On the other hand, it documents a unidirectional causality running from inflation to economic growth and from long-term interest rate to economic growth. The study found no causal relationship between real effective exchange rate and South African economic growth. As a result, the study recommends a more aggressive inflation targeting policy in order to improve economic growth in South Africa.
This study examines the volatility spillover effects among stock, gold, and cryptocurrency returns during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the transition to the endemic phase. The objective is to identify and model the volatility of these three investment instruments using GARCH/EGARCH for univariate modeling and BEKK-GARCH/BEKK-Asymmetric GARCH for multivariate modeling.
The study utilizes daily highest price data from November 1, 2020, to April 30, 2022, and from May 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022. The findings reveal that cryptocurrency is the most volatile asset during both the peak of the pandemic and the transitional period towards endemic COVID-19. Gold serves as a safe haven for cryptocurrency in both periods. Additionally, gold acts as a diversifier for stocks, and vice versa, while stocks also diversify cryptocurrency risk during the pandemic peak. These insights hold significant implications for portfolio risk management, enabling investors to diversify portfolios across instruments with varying risk profiles.
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